In November 2025, the US government said that every regular American would receive a $2,000 tariff rebate check.1 But will we ever get them? Here’s what’s actually happening.
The Cost of Tarrifs
Last year, the average American household paid about $1,700 more because of tariffs.2 Groceries, electronics, clothes, and everyday items were quietly rising every day. And then fast forward to February 20th. We had a major Supreme Court ruling that came out saying that some of those tariffs may have been imposed illegally.3
So the big question is what happens to the hundreds of billions of dollars that were collected through tariffs? Because companies paid billions of dollars in taxes and want their money back. But those higher prices were passed on to us. So there’s a cause to be made. We should get that money too. So let’s take a closer look at where this money will go.
How The Tariffs Started This Time
In 2025, the current administration imposed tariffs under something called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.4 A tariff is a tax on imported goods. So when companies bring foreign products into the US, the companies pay extra. But companies don’t just absorb that cost, they more than likely pass it on to you. So if the company pays more, you’re paying more to buy it.
In 2024, the US government collected about $79 billion in tariffs. Then in 2025, after new tariffs kicked in, that number exploded to $264 billion according to the US Treasury and Customs data.5 That’s the total collected across all tariff programs. That’s more than three times as much in a single year.
And what about 2026? According to Yale Budget Lab estimates, to give everyone those $2,000 checks, we’d have to collect $450 billion.6 That means we’d essentially need to double the tariff revenue needed to fund those rebate checks. So, the odds of that $2,000 check are looking pretty slim right about now.
Or, in the best case scenario, we’d have to wait at least another year while still paying those higher prices.
The Hurdle With Tariff Checks
There’s also a unique hurdle that comes with these tariff checks, and that’s the need for them to get passed through Congress. The current administration also announced in December 2025 that the government would send a $1,776 warrior dividend check to each US service member, but those checks were funded through the Defense Department and didn’t have the red tape slowing them down.7
Certified financial planner and analyst Steven Kates said that a potential tariff dividend would be significantly more difficult to implement than the Warrior Dividend.8 The warrior dividend was funded through military housing allocations included in the One Big Beautiful Bill. That funding had already been appropriated to the military and was later repurposed to issue checks.
Now, if we go back to the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling, the issue was that the way these tariffs were collected was illegal, not the tariffs themselves. I mean, at this given second, we still have tariffs in place. Most people are just now even starting to hear about this. But companies have been preparing for this and they’re moving fast.
Corporate Responses To Tariffs
FedEx was one of the first major companies to act.Just days after the Supreme Court ruling, they filed a lawsuit against the United States asking for a full refund on every tariff dollar they paid.9 And they’re not alone. Costco, who imports about a third of everything they sell in the US, has already filed a lawsuit, too.10 And there are reports that over 1,000 companies could be filing similar claims.
So, we’ve got hundreds, maybe thousands of companies all preparing to line up to get their piece of what could be the $175 billion refund. Now, you might be wondering, wait, I thought we said $264 billion. Here’s the difference. Not all of those tariffs were ruled illegal.
The $175 billion figure, which comes from the Penn Wharton budget model at the University of Pennsylvania, represents the portion collected specifically under the emergency powers law that the Supreme Court struck down. The rest was collected under other legal authorities and isn’t part of this refund fight.
From a legal standpoint, companies are the ones who paid the tariff. They wrote the checks and yes, this money is technically owed to them. But you were still paying higher prices as a result of these tariffs.
But Will Consumers Receive Money?
So, this is the part that is really frustrating because you paid too. You paid every single time you checked out at the grocery store every time you bought your kids new school clothes. Prices were always just a little higher than they used to be. But technically speaking, we didn’t pay the actual tariffs.
And economists are being very clear on this. They’re saying consumers will almost certainly get nothing back. And even if companies get billions refunded, that doesn’t mean prices suddenly drop. And it doesn’t mean they send checks to customers. Even small businesses are saying that it doesn’t make sense to pass the money back to customers.
Pricing doesn’t work as a refund system. And this is exactly why moments like this matter. Because when money gets tight, people often turn to the wrong solutions. If you are experiencing a financial emergency and need money now, please do not make the mistake of getting a payday loan. Instead, turn to a trusted lender like CreditNinja where you can apply and get up to $5,000 the same day.*
How Long Will It Take To Get Paid?
And even beyond who gets the money, there’s another issue, timing. Two questions come up. How long will it take for companies to get their money back? And what does it mean for our $2,000 tariff rebate checks? To address question number one, the Treasury Secretary has said that this could take weeks, months, or even years for companies to get their refund.11
It’s going to be deeply entangled and tied up in lawsuits, claims, investigations, and government decisions. And during that time, not a single dollar goes to you or anyone. And it gets worse. It’s costing us even more. In fact, every month the refunds are delayed will cost taxpayers $700 million more dollars. And if you’re waiting for the tariff rebate check, maybe don’t. Honestly, I wouldn’t hold my breath. So, where does that leave us? High prices that aren’t dropping and no checks. And in one of the most surprising moments, the Treasury Secretary even described this potential outcome as “if there is a payout, it looks like it’s just going to be the ultimate corporate welfare.”12 Just a massive flow of money back to corporations.
Are We Still Paying For The Tariffs?
And here’s the part that frustrates us even more. We’re still paying those higher prices because within hours of the Supreme Court ruling that the tariffs were illegal, new tariffs went into effect. Different legal authority, same results. Instead of using the emergency law that got struck down, the administration immediately switched to something called Section 122 and imposed a 15% tariff on almost everything coming into the country.13
So, while the legal battle over the $175 billion refund drags on in courts, which could take years, you’re still paying more at the checkout. The tariffs never actually stopped. They just got a new name.
But the Supreme Court didn’t actually rule on whether refunds have to be paid out. They only said that the original tariffs were collected using the wrong legal authority. The question of who gets that $175 billion back, that’s being decided in lower courts right now. And that means there’s a real possibility that money just stays with the government or gets paid out so slowly that by the time it’s resolved, nobody’s paying attention anymore.
A Final Word on Tariff Checks
So, all in all, you paid $1,700 more last year just to live. And now there’s potentially about $175 billion that has to be refunded. But so far, it feels like the companies will likely receive tariff refunds, not the customers.
And while that doesn’t mean something illegal is going on necessarily, it does explain why people feel like they’re playing a game they just can’t win.
But the next time you hear about tariffs, refunds, and economic policies related to all of this, you’ll understand a whole lot more about who pays and who doesn’t.
Sources:
- https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/2-000-stimulus-check-coming-182241373.html
- https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/7cc03e65-d40a-465f-9e88-09dd53d3502f/jec-fact-sheet-on-cost-of-tariffs-for-families-update.pdf
- https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB11398
- https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45618
- https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/tariff-tracker/
- https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/estimated-budgetary-distributional-and-macroeconomic-effects-tariff-dividends
- https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4382089/1776-warrior-dividend-tax-free-irs-confirms/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/08/stimulus-check-trump-tariffs-2000.html
- https://fortune.com/2026/04/29/fedex-ups-pledging-tariff-refunds-back-to-customers/
- https://www.seattletimes.com/business/costco/costco-sued-over-trump-tariff-refunds/
- https://thehill.com/business/5749731-bessent-trump-tariffs-refunds/
- https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/bessent-says-tariff-refund-would-be-ultimate-corporate-welfare
- https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/03/the-remaining-questions-after-the-supreme-courts-tariffs-ruling
